Published on 09 November 2018
Purpose. Development and creation of a mathematical model of environmental sustainability of the transport system in the mountain region which would allow to systematize and formalize the processes of the transport systems impact on the environment and the reverse impact which in turn would allow to comprehensively assess the environmental sustainability of the system "mountain transport – the environment", to develop specific measures to increase it. Methods. The analysis algorithm of the transport system ecological compatibility in the mountain region is based on the simultaneous analysis of the transport system functioning, the state of the environment and the assessment of their mutual influence on each other, expressing the level of ecological compatibility of the transport system in the mountain region. Assessment of techno-genic impact of the transport system on the environment is made by comparing the real values of the influence parameters with the normalized ones. Assessment of the possible impact of the environment on the transport system is also made by comparing the real parameters of influence with the permissible ones (for example, the probability of manifestation of an environmental risk, possible damage, etc.). If the actual characteristics in both cases fall within the limits of the permissible values, the ecological compatibility of the transport system is fulfilled. Results. The developed mathematical model and analysis algorithm of the transport system sustainability in the mountain region using a set of 2 matrices: the influence of anthropogenic factors of the transport system on the natural environment and the impact of environmental hazards in the mountainous region on the functioning and sustainable development of the transport system. The analysis algorithm of the transport system ecological compatibility in the mountain region based on the simultaneous analysis of functioning of transport system, a condition of environment and an assessment of their mutual influence on each other expressing level of ecological compatibility of transport system in the mountain region is given. The probabilistic model of ecological compatibility and the method of its analysis are offered. Summary. The matrix model and the proposed method of the transport system ecological compatibility analysis in the mountain region allows the most complete qualitative and quantitative assessment of both the techno-genic impact of the transport system on the environment and the dangerous impact of natural anomalies (environmental risks) on the transport system, maintaining the environmental compatibility of the transport system of the mountain region at the proper level, is a prerequisite for sustainable development of mountain areas. The given method of mathematical description of ecological interaction of transport system and environment can be used in the analysis of ecological compatibility of other techno-genic objects.
Tags: модель, матрица, экологические риски, горный регион, алгоритм, экологическая совместимость, транспортная система, окружающая природная среда, техногенные факторы, нормирование
ISSN 1998-4502 (Print) ISSN 2499-975Х (Online)